The most beautiful Wednesday at Poplar Creek yet…and they predicted rain.  You sillies.  Fake news.  Worthy substitute leader of the week for meeting number 3,862 was Joe La Mariana.  The meeting was called to order at the appointed time.
 
Joe mentioned the passing of Mrs. Butch Taylor (Betty Lou).  Also mentioned was the loss of young Nicky Baylock, son of former Councilwoman and Mayor Cathy Baylock.  Our condolences to the Taylor and Baylock families.
 

Pledge and Invocation

Joe invited Jim Shypertt to lead us in the pledge.  As the invocation was not assigned, Joe La Mariana delivered some thoughts, ending with a recitation of The Four Way Test.
 

Guests and Visiting Rotarians

Guest of Mike Horowitz was nephew Tim Gilmartin. No visiting Rotarians.  Also visiting was our speaker, Carole Rodoni, and her millennial driver Collin.   More about Collin later.

New Members 

It was Joe La Mariana’s honor to present round badges to three new members: 
 
Nancy Bush, sponsored by Cheryl Fama  
 
Rachel Ni, sponsored by Jay Doker 
 
Mariya Shklovskaya, sponsored by Barry Parker.  Welcome and congratulations all!!

Newscast

Cheri DeLacy Carr touched on the serious subject of tax time upon us this weekend.  It was a light touch, if such a thing is possible.

  • Items can be deductible, but still taxing.
  • Sharks don’t attack tax collectors.  Professional courtesy.
  • Red flag.  You’re doing something wrong if you have money left.
  • Who is the better detective, Sherlock Holmes or your tax accountant?    Your tax accountant; he finds the most
Yes, times they continue challenging!
Thanks, Cheri, we will look forward to your next Newscast!

Program

Mike Horwitz introduced speaker for the day Carole Rodoni.  Carole is known as an expert in all things real estate.  Carole  is President of Bamboo Consulting (bambooconsultinginc.com),  a former President of Fox & Carskadon, COO of Cornish & Carey, President of Alain Pinel Realtors. Carole says we have a recession about every eight years. Not a serious problem if of short duration.  The south is still in the last recession. 
We are operating in a situation of some risk.  We are 800 billion short in the budget, 20 trillion in debt.  Brexit is in process with 52% of Europeans wanting out of the EU, and 48% preferring to stay in.  Implementation of Article 50 has begun; London real estate prices are down 30%. Perhaps our biggest challenge in employment is automation.  We need to re-tool our people, too.  Trade schools are needed to train folks in plumbing, electronics, computer maintenance, back room activities which support all sectors. Cybersecurity is a major concern.  The economy is like a woman, it asks what, where, when?  Doesn’t care if you like it or not. Washington is like a big, ugly ship; moves slowly. Interest rates have been interesting; The Fed will raise rates as often as possible this year, probably in .25% increments.
Carole’s bet is that the public will give this administration until August to show their stuff, or will want them gone.  Reduction of corporate taxes necessary to move the economy. Silicon Valley holds a great hand:  Enjoys 7% GDP, with San Jose at 8.9%. 
Facebook/Google/Apple/Microsoft hold one trillion in cash, plus  another trillion banked abroad.
Apple alone holds 60 billion plus 230 billion abroad.  They are selling 462 iPhones every minute. Eighty-five percent of the U.S. population already owns an iPhone, so these companies are looking to foreign shores for expansion.  Acquisitions involve complementary product lines.
Intel has purchased Mobile One, a driverless car.  Why? Creating a market for the microchips required to operate the cars.Ford and GM have been surpassed in value by Tesla.  Tesla has never been profitable, doesn’t apparently care.  The investing rules have changed.  Carole suggests we stop worrying about Washington.  In so many words, she deems them ineffectual at the minimum. The talk on the East Coast is that real estate is so expensive here that no one can afford to buy in the Bay Area.  From the looks of the traffic, someone is definitely buying and living here.  In San Francisco a buyer will pay 1,100 to 1,300/s.f.  In the East Bay, the cost is 200-300/s.f.  In outer Marin, expect 200-400/s.f.
 
San Francisco is hardly the highest-priced area; that would be “The Peak,” Hong  Kong at $13,000/s.f.  Most expensive markets worldwide are Hong Kong, London, Paris, Rome, Sydney. Real estate selling is a challenge because folks don’t want to buy an overvalued property.  Hard to determine how a property can be overvalued when there is limited inventory, qualified folks are standing in line in competition with cash/fast close/non-contingent offers. A nice earthquake could help, separating us from the United States and North to South.  The Bay Area would be the sixth largest economy on its own.   The entry market nationally is $200K to $800K; in the Bay Area it is one million dollars. For a buyer today, the truth hurts:  competition means I win, you lose, or you win, I lose.  To compete today, start with thinking of a bid ten percent over list, ten-day close, cash, no contingencies.  There still will be thirty others waiting to bid, with similar or better offers.The property will sell three to ten percent over asking.  Stepping up is the ticket into the movie theater. 
Sellers have enjoyed 30-60% appreciation in the recent few years.  Nothing to complain about.  It’s still about location, condition.The competition often involves Facebook versus Google and winning is imperative.  Teardowns are the most coveted.  Best zip codes win.  Not, by the by, 94010.  Just not quite fabulous enough for Millennials.  Millennials have the dollars; entry-level programmers start at $150,000.  Often the family annual income is $500,000.  They don’t admire our kitchens, want to buy a tear-down in a great zip code and create their own vision of home.Typically millennials are 25-45, live at home, are arrogant and narcissistic.  Carole brought one with her!

Introducing Collin.  Collin drives Carole when she wants to go somewhere.  He shared his customary daily activities.  Awake, eat oatmeal, post the oatmeal meal on Facebook and Instagram.  Check mail online, check Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, send hundreds of emails and texts. Do it again unless Carole needs to be driven somewhere.  Does Collin care about housing or the cost of housing? Nyet.  Is he impressed with the need for a Realtor.  No, he will use Zillow.  Does he respect a Realtor with extensive experience? Not at all.  Collin wants videos!!!!!  Videos of the houses as Zillow does.  If you’re a Realtor and want to connect, make an impressive video of yourself.  Baby Boomer thinking is grossly out of the sphere of Collin’s interest.Fair warning:  Generation Z is already 9-25 years old. Thanks, Carole. You’re the best! 
 
Next week – April 19 – Poplar Creek 
Chief Susan Mannheimer, Police Department, San Mateo
         “Mary Jane and the Ordinary Joe,
       Aka Marijuana and You