Rotarians lined up at the food bar (aka Sappore Italiano on wheels) before 12:15 and began the feast of ravioli, pasta Bolognese [my personal favorite, not that anybody asked], fresh (I swear they were still in the dirt two days earlier) steamed vegetables, Caesar salad, fresh baguette and for desert (as if we needed it):  homemade cannoli. 

 

By 12:25, President Fritz had commandeered the mic and bade us a good morning.  Which was swiftly changed to a “good afternoon.”  But he noted, with a bow toward the West, that it was still morning in Kauai.  Fritz also educated us that this was (reputedly) National Read a Road Map Day.  Really?  He then noted some of us like to see the whole map (big picture people) and others like to read the line-by-line instructions on when and where to make the next turn.  He added, helpfully for those more interested in math than maps, that “there are three kinds of people in the world:  Those who are good and math and those who are not.” Well done, Fritz.  He noted that it is also the beginning of Passover.  And many of us noted that it also is the idle of Holy Week.

 

Soon enough it was time for the pledge of allegiance, led with his trademark presence and poise by Mark Johnson.  The invocation was presented by Carol Tanzi who offered our thanks to God for family, friends, fellowship, and food.

 

Guests included:  Julianna Fuerbringer, from the San Mateo Club.  Doug Person, our membership chair who works indefatigably behind the scenes to find interesting people who are interested in us then spoke up.  He introduced, as a guest of the Club for a second visit, Doug Bell.  Doug is a retired senior engineer for the City of Burlingame.  We were delighted to welcome back to our Club Jim Stephenson, our speaker of the day (see below).  On Zoom we added in our wonderful new member Judge Anne Bouliane and also Alden Cunningham (who re-deployed to his summer home in Carlisle, PA for about half the year, but still attends our meetings via zoom when he can, even as he is active in the Rotary Club in Carlisle).  Also on Zoom:  Ted Kruttschnitt and Bill Tiedeman.

 

New Member:  Susan Baker was welcomed into our Club by Doug Person and President Fritz with certificate, secret handshake, and all the bells and whistles (which one sees and hears only in the realm of imagination).  Welcome again, Susan—we needed you and your expertise as the head of the Burlingame Chamber of Commerce and the possibilities of working together for the good of our town!

 

 

Jennifer Pence and Bob Doerr presented a sample skit as a reminder to us all that “Burlingame’s Got Talent!” is coming up on Sunday, April 30 with gourmet dinners provided by a plethora of first class local restaurants who happily agreed to put their shoulders to the wheel (and chefs to the stoves) in support of our charitable fund raiser.  We have restaurants from Burlingame Ave., Howard Ave, and beyond (eat your heart out, San Mateo; you just have to stand by and watch us on this one).  From soup to nuts with a yet to be revealed “Custom Specialized Drink” to be revealed along with many more predictable libations for the evening.  Also slated are seven talent presentations (3-5 minutes each) and that number may still grow.  It all sounds fun and worthwhile since we are trying to raise a cool 10K for our scholarships, international projects, and other superlative and sacrificial programs by which we are working behind the scenes to serve Burlingame, California, the USA and the global world.  Events like this are what helped Rotary internationally to eradicate polio—this is an evening which will be “good” in two ways for YOU:  A fun , interesting and entertaining time is one.  Second is a big impact of your contributions to the causes of education, medicine, quality of life and more for many unseen peoples.  No kidding—Be there or be square!

 

 

Today’s headliner is Jim Stevenson, husband to Loretta and father of five children.  Jim is with Morgan Stanley as executive director or their portfolio management and as a financial advisor.  Importantly, he was a Burlingame Rotarian, popular for his friendliness and for his economic acumen.  He is a graduate of Cal Berkeley and holds clearances and certificates for 4,395 stock broking recognitions, give or take a few thousand.  Today he was asked to review the economic situation of our nation.

 

Jim noted that things continue to change so quickly that it is virtually impossible to cover everything, and he will be general in his comments.  His thoughts are meant to represent him and not officially Morgan Stanley. 

 

Last year, half of all debt instruments gave a negative return—this is a highly irregular reality.  A big part of the problem that foiled so many investors is that the Fed in 2021 made a mis-step and believed that inflation was transitory and thus not a big or long term problem.  In reality we got the highest inflation in 40 years, and short-term debt was very costly.  The Fed came up with the fastest increases in the prime rate since the 1980’s, and business suffered.  For example, observe all the vacant office buildings.  Not only was the problem the seven rate hikes, but also the Ukraine – USSR war (not only in its direct costs, but in the resulting instability that slowed down investment globally), also the closing off of itself by China, against the West especially.  Also, crypto currency markets collapsed, and bonds performed worse than they had for 150 years.

 

In the just completed Q1 of 2023, the Fed has raised their rate two times, and may also the the same a third (in May).  Oil prices are down, and finally the bonds aregoing up.  Jim suggests we look with bullish minds toward the future of the Bond market.  He also notes the S&P has risen 7.5%, which is new and good news.  Now china is starting to reopen partially, and he thinkgs international stocks should be considered very strongly.

 

The good news Jim notes also is that the Fed recognizes fully now that “something is broken” so their ways of reacting are getting better than before.  Also, with low unemployment, he feels though there will be a Recession, it will be much lighter than the 2008 one. 

 

In response to questions, Jim noted that for fixed income people, the commercial real estate market is going to be a challenge, but tech companies are hiring back people, and most folks out of those jobs are finding new employment fairly quickly.   He feels we will be much more normal now  and that the last decade was abnormal because of the consistently lower interest rates.

 

This was a big learning moment for many of us in the realm of finance and economics, and we thank Jim for his time, expertise, and good will.

 

 

 

(NOTE—I am not trained in finance or economics, so please understand and excuse any mixed up notes above!  My training is in theology, and he didn’t say a darn thing about God; I checked!)

 

Welcome back Frances!!!

 

 

Meeting adjourned at 1:28.  Good job by everyone, all the way around.